has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.) In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance) Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats).
Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time.
Our 2020 forecasts - presidential, Senate, House - are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race.
